Friday, February 20, 2015

Economy is not growing but moving

The economy is moving, its shifting. Not moving as motion, but moving as in its being taken piecemeal and replicated in other parts of the world. We call it growth.

Think of All the things that make developed countries developed, as colorful blue, green, yellow, Lego blocks. And now imagine a country like India with brown dusty Lego blocks. Now take off a brown Lego block from India, and replace it with a colorful Lego block from US or Japan or any other developed country.

Its important because it means, every smallest piece of lego block will eventually follow others and move.





That is today's economy.
For the longest time, i used to think that the Indian entrepreneur was a specialist in copying Ideas from the west. But today i had an epiphany, and i realize that they are not being copied. I think this is what is happening, and will continue to happen.

Each human being has needs. These needs are fulfilled by products. Then a product (say mobiles) comes along which is a paradigm shift in all the products. It fulfills a need, which cannot taken care of by the current products in the economy, and then that product needs to be either imported, or either copied as is.

When you look at competing economies, they are like a net. Each product and service exists in the economy because it fulfills a need, a gap, in the system. All the products and services are therefore interdependent. You can't take away a hand without a body attached to it. Since it happens over time, we don't see it as an immediate cause an effect.

Lets expand the idea further using the same example of Mobiles  as above.

So you got computers. But then more Mobile companies follow, because if one company is making profits here, other companies need that too. Above all these companies can't let another company play unfair by simply expanding the geographical area in which they were playing. If company A and B were competing within US market, both of them were focused on customers and creating efficient processes. Now that company B adds India as a market, company A needs to join India too, to be not at a disadvantage. So end result, Company A & B are in in India now.

Now what has started is a Lego piece of US economy landed in India. And this piece needs other pieces to be efficient and be in natural environment, just like its DNA. Some of the needs are immediately fulfilled by local Lego pieces, but there's just too much difference.
The company C meanwhile which was catering to company B, now decides that it already has a ready customer in India, and it opens up an India office..and then so does D & E & F...all the way to the end of the alphabet.

The only way to stop this migration, is to copy the Lego piece as soon as the company B lands here. So that there is no place for company C to follow. More like a prosthetic arm, so that you don't need the original arm.
But even then, from a customers perspective, the need for mobile phone creates other needs which needs to be fulfilled. Higher data speeds, local repair shops, and various other things.

These are the same needs which rose in US, and then companies were formed to fill the gap. Similarly, companies here will rise with the same DNA, fulfilling the same needs that came up in US. If that doesn't happen, some one will come from US to fulfill the needs.

This means that there are two kinds of companies.
One that is copying the Lego bricks locally creating competition and others that are Moving the Lego bricks.

Two strategies. Competition or Expansion.
This will keep on happening till the world is homogeneous.

Once this is understood, its very easy to see source for new business ideas.
Either blindly copy the next step of evolution in the exact same sequence as it happened in US.
Or either compete with the latest  sequence  which has just landed in the local market and compete.

First is a little more risky, the second a little less risky. The choice depends on your risk appetite, means the funding available to you.


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